Good morning. Let’s get into it.
Crude’s bid started well before the weekend military strikes in Iran.
Wednesday’s tell: the EIA print showed a ~16mm bbl inventory build vs ~1.5mm expected - and WTI refused to break.
Further, energy sector ETFs took in roughly $963M over five days, and shorts have been covering
From the tape, crude looks like a no-brainer buy. And when a trade looks like a no-brainer, the real risk is the exit.
That’s exactly why you can’t be naked long.
The tail risk is resolution in Iran: the risk premium can come out fast, and crude can gap lower.
Now there’s an opportunity to participate in the upside without letting one headline take you out.
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