After the Shock: Modeling a Longer War

In “investor years,” which fall somewhere between human and dog years, 2026 has already felt like three full years. And it’s only March.

Up to this point, my work around the Iranian conflict has centered on near-term price action: the early dollar firming, oil refusing to get sold before missiles flew, and capital stubbornly flowing back to the megacap.

My positioning, accordingly, has been more tactical than portfolio-wide.

But as this war moves into its third week, it has become clear that a deeper framework is needed to understand what prolonged conflict is likely to do to asset prices from here.

To answer that, I built a cross-asset regime study from the ground up.